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Announcements
Portfolio Strategy
Superforecasting
Risk Management
Probability-weighted Return
Portfolio Optimization
Institutional Investor
External Articles
Essentia Analytics
Clare Flynn Levy
Benn Dunn
Behavioral Finance
Arthur Laffer
Analytics
The Difference Between Probability and Confidence
Probability-weighted Return
The Difference Between Probability and Confidence
probability, confidence, forecasting, probability-weighted return
5/30/24
Alpha Theory Stock Selection Index - Q1 Performance
Portfolio Strategy
Alpha Theory Stock Selection Index - Q1 Performance
Stock Selection Index, Sharpe ratio, stock picking
4/30/24
Mauboussin: The Two Decision Aids that Fundamental Investors Should Use…But Often Don’t
Portfolio Strategy
Mauboussin: The Two Decision Aids that Fundamental Investors Should Use…But Often Don’t
Mauboussin, Fundamental Investors, Decision Aids, Capital Allocators
3/27/24
How Human Intuition Improves by Using Optimizers: Learnings from DE Shaw
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
How Human Intuition Improves by Using Optimizers: Learnings from DE Shaw
Portfolio Optimization Machine Learning DE Shaw Position Sizing discretionary portfolio management
2/28/24
Alpha Theory 2023 Year in Review
Analytics
Portfolio Strategy
Alpha Theory 2023 Year in Review
Position sizing Price targets Conviction Systematic process Active management Benchmark outperformance Optimal portfolio Return on invested capital Win rate Compounding returns
1/29/24
Could You Lose on Purpose? Investing Luck vs. Skill
Portfolio Strategy
Could You Lose on Purpose? Investing Luck vs. Skill
Investing, stock picking, Michael Mauboussin, Stocks
12/28/23
Alpha Theory Stock Selection Index
Portfolio Strategy
Alpha Theory Stock Selection Index
Stock picking, Sharpe ratio, portfolio management
11/30/23
Portfolio Intuition by Chris Kennedy
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Intuition by Chris Kennedy
portfolio intuition, Diversity Orthogonality Theory, portfolio management, Chris Kennedy
10/31/23
Alpha Theory 2022 Year in Review: The Year That Broke the Streak
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Optimization
Alpha Theory 2022 Year in Review: The Year That Broke the Streak
Year in Review, batting & slugging, position sizing, price targets, optimal performance
9/27/23
Diversity Orthogonality Theory: The Key Ingredient to a Free Lunch
Portfolio Strategy
Diversity Orthogonality Theory: The Key Ingredient to a Free Lunch
diversification, correlation, portoflio, Sharpe Ratio, Diversity Orthogonality Theory
8/30/23
Mauboussin Gives Us Confidence
Portfolio Strategy
Mauboussin Gives Us Confidence
Probability, Mauboussin, risk-adjusted return, confidence
7/26/23
I Am No Expert
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Optimization
I Am No Expert
Investing, CenterBook Partners, position sizing, probabilities, expert
6/28/23
Batting and Slugging Sensitivity
Analytics
Batting and Slugging Sensitivity
Batting average, slugging sensitivity, slugging percentage, position sizing
5/24/23
batting and slugging
New Probability of Success Calculation (Improving Batting Average Analysis)
Portfolio Strategy
New Probability of Success Calculation (Improving Batting Average Analysis)
probability of success, batting average, probabilistic forecasts, breaching price targets
4/27/23
Probability of Breaching Price Target (Part 2)
Portfolio Strategy
Probability of Breaching Price Target (Part 2)
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, Harbor Spring Capital, Price Target, excel
3/23/23
Probability of Breaching Price Target
Portfolio Strategy
Probability of Breaching Price Target
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, price target, probability, CenterBook Partners, forecast
2/15/23
Workflow: The #1 Reason Funds Say “No” To Alpha Theory
Analytics
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
Workflow: The #1 Reason Funds Say “No” To Alpha Theory
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, portfolio optimization, price targets, Excel Connect
12/27/22
Ask Me Anything - Q&A Session with Mohnish Pabrai
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Optimization
Ask Me Anything - Q&A Session with Mohnish Pabrai
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, Mohnish Pabrai, Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Pabrai Investment Funds, UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School, Ask Me Anything
12/27/22
Loss Aversion And The Impact Of Daily P&L
Behavioral Finance
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
Loss Aversion And The Impact Of Daily P&L
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, loss aversion, P&L, Prospect Theory
11/28/22
The IKEA Effect: Don’t Overvalue Positions You’ve Built Yourself
Analytics
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
The IKEA Effect: Don’t Overvalue Positions You’ve Built Yourself
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, IKEA, explicit price targets, position sizing
10/27/22
The Impact Of Large Trades: Helping CenterBook Partner Funds Profit From Transaction Cost Analysis
Analytics
Portfolio Strategy
Risk Management
The Impact Of Large Trades: Helping CenterBook Partner Funds Profit From Transaction Cost Analysis
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, CenterBook Partners, quantitative, qualitative, alpha horizon
9/23/22
What Does It Mean To Be A Good Stock Picker? Part 2
Analytics
Portfolio Strategy
Probability-weighted Return
What Does It Mean To Be A Good Stock Picker? Part 2
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, stock picker, slugging percentage, randomness equation
8/11/22
What Does It Mean To Be A Good Stock Picker?
Analytics
Portfolio Strategy
Probability-weighted Return
What Does It Mean To Be A Good Stock Picker?
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, stock picker, batting average
7/28/22
8 Data Science Resources For Investment Management Professionals
Analytics
8 Data Science Resources For Investment Management Professionals
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, investment management professionals
6/24/22
Turtle Creek: The Discipline Behind 21% Compound Returns
Portfolio Strategy
Turtle Creek: The Discipline Behind 21% Compound Returns
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, portfolio optimization, Turtle Creek
5/26/22
March Madness Math 2.0
Analytics
March Madness Math 2.0
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, March Madness, win percentage, KenPom, probability
3/15/22
The 10-Year Streak: Alpha Theory 2021 Year In Review
Analytics
Portfolio Strategy
The 10-Year Streak: Alpha Theory 2021 Year In Review
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, All Manager dataset, price targets, position sizing
2/25/22
The January Effect: Cooling Investor Returns
Analytics
Portfolio Strategy
The January Effect: Cooling Investor Returns
Alpha Theory, Alpha theory blog, investor returns, All-Manager Alpha Theory dataset, tax-loss harvesting
1/27/22
A Lack Of Freshness Spoils Returns
Analytics
Behavioral Finance
External Articles
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Optimization
A Lack Of Freshness Spoils Returns
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, freshness, price targets, Good Judgement Inc
12/29/21
Getting Comfortable With Many, Micro Updates
Analytics
Behavioral Finance
External Articles
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Optimization
Getting Comfortable With Many, Micro Updates
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, superforecasters, superforecasting, Good Judgement Inc, micro updates
11/29/21
KISS, Or How To Make Money By Following Your Research
Analytics
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
Probability-weighted Return
KISS, Or How To Make Money By Following Your Research
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, probability-weighted return, edge, ROIC, CAGR
10/27/21
The Cost Of Volatility – The Path Dependency Of Returns
Analytics
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
Probability-weighted Return
The Cost Of Volatility – The Path Dependency Of Returns
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, volatility, path dependency
9/29/21
Caveats In Compounding
Analytics
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Optimization
Probability-weighted Return
Caveats In Compounding
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, compound annual growth rate, CAGR, compounding
8/31/21
Gaining Confidence In Your Confidence
Analytics
Behavioral Finance
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Optimization
Gaining Confidence In Your Confidence
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, confidence, capital allocation, confidence checklist, optimal position sizing
7/31/21
Joe Knows: Why Active Managers Should Codify Their Process
Analytics
External Articles
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
Joe Knows: Why Active Managers Should Codify Their Process
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, Joe Wiggins, idea generation, noise cancelling, identifying value-add, portfolio construction
6/30/21
We’re Getting Better All The Time
Analytics
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Strategy
Portfolio Optimization
Probability-weighted Return
We’re Getting Better All The Time
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, systematic portfolio, systematic portfolio outperforming, CenterBook Partners
5/28/21
Capital Allocators Book Release By Ted Seides
Analytics
Behavioral Finance
Clare Flynn Levy
Essentia Analytics
External Articles
Capital Allocators Book Release By Ted Seides
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Capital Allocators, Ted Seides, Cameron Hight, Concentration Manifesto
3/30/21
Alpha Theory 2020 Year In Review
Analytics
Behavioral Finance
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Strategy
Alpha Theory 2020 Year In Review
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron hight, Equity Hedge Index, price targets, position sizing
2/27/21
Optimizing Usage For Optimal Returns (Part 2) - Position Level Analysis
Analytics
Behavioral Finance
External Articles
Institutional Investor
Portfolio Strategy
Optimizing Usage For Optimal Returns (Part 2) - Position Level Analysis
Alpha Theory, Alpha Theory blog, Cameron Hight, optimal returns, freshness, coverage
12/29/20
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